Drought hazards and stakeholder perception: Unraveling the interlinkages between drought severity, perceived impacts, preparedness, and management.

The future risk for droughts and water shortages calls for substantial efforts by authorities to adapt at local levels. Understanding their perception of drought hazards, risk and vulnerability can help to identify drivers of and barriers to drought risk planning and management in a changing climate at the local level. This paper presents a novel interdisciplinary drought case study in Sweden that integrates soft data from a nationwide survey among more than 100 local practitioners and hard data based on hydrological measurements to provide a holistic assessment of the links between drought severity and the perceived levels of drought severity, impacts, preparedness, and management for two consecutive drought events. The paper highlights challenges for drought risk planning and management in a changing climate at the local level and elaborates on how improved understanding of local practitioners to plan for climate change adaptation can be achieved.

Uni- and multivariate bias adjustment methods in Nordic catchments: Complexity and performance in a changing climate.

For climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale, meteorological variables are typically extracted from ensemble simulations provided by global and regional climate models, which are then downscaled and bias-adjusted for each study site. For bias adjustment, different statistical methods that re-scale climate model outputs have been suggested in the scientific literature. They range from simple univariate methods that adjust each meteorological variable individually, to more complex and more demanding multivariate methods that take existing relationships between meteorological variables into consideration. Over the past decade, several attempts have been made to evaluate such methods in various regions. There is, however, still no guidance for choosing appropriate bias adjustment methods for a study at hand. In particular, the question whether the benefits of potentially improved adjustments outweigh the cost of increased complexity, remains unanswered. This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of two commonly used univariate and two multivariate bias adjustment methods in reproducing numerous univariate, multivariate and temporal features of precipitation and temperature series in different catchments in Sweden. The paper culminates in a discussion on trade-offs between the potential benefits (i.e., skills and added value) and disadvantages (complexity and computational demand) of each method to offer plausible, defensible and actionable insights from the standpoint of climate-change impact studies in high latitudes. We concluded that all selected bias adjustment methods generally improved the raw climate model simulations, but that not a single method consistently outperformed the other methods. There were, however, differences in the methods' performance for particular statistical features, indicating that other practical aspects such as computational time and heavy theoretical requirements should also be taken into consideration when choosing an appropriate bias adjustment method.

Potential for long-term transfer of dissolved organic carbon from riparian zones to streams in boreal catchments.

Boreal regions store most of the global terrestrial carbon, which can be transferred as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to inland waters with implications for both aquatic ecology and carbon budgets. Headwater riparian zones (RZ) are important sources of DOC, and often just a narrow 'dominant source layer' (DSL) within the riparian profile is responsible for most of the DOC export. Two important questions arise: how long boreal RZ could sustain lateral DOC fluxes as the sole source of exported carbon and how its hydromorphological variability influences this role. We estimate theoretical turnover times by comparing carbon pools and lateral exports in the DSL of 13 riparian profiles distributed over a 69 km(2) catchment in northern Sweden. The thickness of the DSL was 36 ± 18 (average ± SD) cm. Thus, only about one-third of the 1-m-deep riparian profile contributed 90% of the lateral DOC flux. The 13 RZ exported 8.7 ± 6.5 g C m(-2) year(-1) , covering the whole range of boreal stream DOC exports. The variation could be explained by local hydromorphological characteristics including RZ width (R(2) = 0.90). The estimated theoretical turnover times were hundreds to a few thousands of years, that is there is a potential long-lasting supply of DOC. Estimates of net ecosystem production in the RZ suggest that lateral fluxes, including both organic and inorganic C, could be maintained without drawing down the riparian pools. This was supported by measurements of stream DO(14) C that indicated modern carbon as the predominant fraction exported, including streams disturbed by ditching. The transfer of DOC into boreal inland waters from new and old carbon sources has a major influence on surface water quality and global carbon balances. This study highlights the importance of local variations in RZ hydromorphology and DSL extent for future DOC fluxes under a changing climate.

Evasion of CO2 from streams - the dominant component of the carbon export through the aquatic conduit in a boreal landscape.

Evasion of gaseous carbon (C) from streams is often poorly quantified in landscape C budgets. Even though the potential importance of the capillary network of streams as C conduits across the land-water-atmosphere interfaces is sometimes mentioned, low-order streams are often left out of budget estimates due to being poorly characterized in terms of gas exchange and even areal surface coverage. We show that evasion of C is greater than all the total dissolved C (both organic and inorganic) exported downstream in the waters of a boreal landscape. In this study evasion of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) from running waters within a 67 km(2) boreal catchment was studied. During a 4 year period (2006-2009) 13 streams were sampled on 104 different occasions for dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). From a locally determined model of gas exchange properties, we estimated the daily CO2 evasion with a high-resolution (5 × 5 m) grid-based stream evasion model comprising the entire ~100 km stream network. Despite the low areal coverage of stream surface, the evasion of CO2 from the stream network constituted 53% (5.0 (±1.8) g C m(-2)  yr(-1) ) of the entire stream C flux (9.6 (±2.4) g C m(-2)  yr(-1) ) (lateral as DIC, DOC, and vertical as CO2 ). In addition, 72% of the total CO2 loss took place already in the first- and second-order streams. This study demonstrates the importance of including CO2 evasion from low-order boreal streams into landscape C budgets as it more than doubled the magnitude of the aquatic conduit for C from this landscape. Neglecting this term will consequently result in an overestimation of the terrestrial C sink strength in the boreal landscape.

Forest harvest increases runoff most during low flows in two boreal streams.

To understand how forest harvest influences the aquatic environment, it is essential to determine the changes in the flow regime. This paper presents changes in the hydrological regime during the first 2 y after harvest in two catchments of the Balsjö Catchment Study in Sweden. The changes were judged relative to a reference catchment, calibrated during an 18-mo pretreatment period starting in September 2004. From August 2006 through March 2008, there was an average of 35% more runoff from the harvested catchments relative to the reference. The flow increased most during the growing seasons and at base flows (<1 mm d(-1); 58-99% increase), followed by dormant season and intermediate flows (30-43%). No significant changes were observed during the highest flows (over 5 mm d(-1)), except for the spring flood a few weeks after harvest, which was delayed and attenuated. Large relative changes in low flow may influence the ecosystem by altering the aquatic habitat.